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[Stratodog]

Should we send this to the NTSB?

Also, here is a new video showing that he did a barrel roll into the stands

I'm sure the NTSB has got some pretty good ideas by now, but they're sure not going to say anything for a while...
Yeah, there is definitely some roll in that loop.  At the very beginning of your second video it looks like a fairly rapid quarter roll while he is almost vertical.  I suppose that would account for some witnesses saying that they thought he tried to avoid the crowd.  To me it looks like he's completely lost control of the plane.  Was the roll intentional? maybe.  Could also be just a little bit of the type of roll you can get near max AoA?  Pretty intense. 

[Pursuivant]

Should we send this to the NTSB?

The NTSB is going to be all over this like hungry flies on bloody meat on a hot day. The reports I've heard were that local NTSB investigators were there within an hour and that top investigators from Washington D.C. were on their way within a couple of hours after the accident. By the day after the accident, they'd sealed off the entire airport.

Unlike most of the people speculating on pilot and flight sim forums (including me), the people going over the evidence will have PhDs in engineering, months worth of flight time, and years of collective experience in aircraft accident investigation. Not only will they be looking at video shot of the incident, they'll also be enlarging and digitally enhancing that video to pull out details that we can't see on YouTube. Simultaneously, they'll literally sift through the evidence, interview the hundreds of witnesses who saw the accident, check maintenance logs and do all the other things that trained accident investigators do.

In about 18 months, we'll have a preliminary report on what went wrong. In 2-3 years, we'll have the definitive report on the incident which will tell us exactly what went wrong and make recommendations as to what we should do in the future to avoid similar incidents. (Sometimes I think that the NTSB gets called a "tombstone agency" because of the size of some of their reports!)

That said, I think that Stratodog nailed it. Trim tab comes loose at high speeds, plane pitches up due to change in elevator trim and goes into a half loop/split S, pilot goes into GLOC, plane becomes an unguided missile aimed at the ground. Commenters on other forums have suggested the same thing.

In that case, the series of events which culminated in the accident started months ago, possibly with the decision to modify the airplane so it could vastly exceed the original maximum speed. Leeward might have forgotten that if you constantly fly a plane in circles at speeds vastly exceeding original manufacturer's specs, you put strain on other portions of the airframe, like trim tabs. After a couple of months, the metal fails under the increased stress and tragedy ensues.

[coatesy75]

That said, I think that Stratodog nailed it. Trim tab comes loose at high speeds, plane pitches up due to change in elevator trim and goes into a half loop/split S, pilot goes into GLOC, plane becomes an unguided missile aimed at the ground. Commenters on other forums have suggested the same thing.

In that case, the series of events which culminated in the accident started months ago, possibly with the decision to modify the airplane so it could vastly exceed the original maximum speed. Leeward might have forgotten that if you constantly fly a plane in circles at speeds vastly exceeding original manufacturer's specs, you put strain on other portions of the airframe, like trim tabs. After a couple of months, the metal fails under the increased stress and tragedy ensues.

   +1

[Wildchild]

Appearently the NTSB is taking all the remaining piece's from the Galloping Ghost they can find, and there actuall going to try to rebuild her, mainly to back up there findings...  ???

[Pursuivant]

Appearently the NTSB is taking all the remaining piece's from the Galloping Ghost they can find, and there actuall going to try to rebuild her, mainly to back up there findings...  ???

That's Standard Operating Procedure. Collect as many parts as you can, log approximately where you found them, bag them and tag them (same as evidence techs do at the scene of a crime);

  http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/assets/img/making-air-travel-safer/image-03-small.jpg

Then, lay them out in approximate order in an empty warehouse:

   http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e1/STS-107-Debris_KSC_Hangar.jpg/800px-STS-107-Debris_KSC_Hangar.jpg

Then, based on what they found, plus all the other evidence, they'll draw preliminary conclusions. Later, they'll make a more comprehensive analysis, which will expand on their initial findings. (Of course, in the case of the Galloping Ghost, the most important piece of wreckage will probably be the one that ISN'T at the scene of the crash.)

It's morbid as hell, but accident investigation and failure analysis is a fascinating field. The only problem is that accident investigators only get involved after an accident, which is why the NTSB gets criticized as a "tombstone" agency.

[Wildchild]

What will they do with it after they put it back together? Give it back to the Leewards?

[Radoye]

they won't really put it together, just lay out all the little broken and twisted pieces approximately where they once stood.

[dinosaurJR]

This really is tragic.

I really doubt that there will be enough of the Galloping Ghost to put back together in either static or flying condition - hitting the ground at 500mph+ will have left parts no bigger than a couple of feet across... I would say a 100% loss, not even nuts and bolts salvageable...

It's like Radoye says - they lay out all the little mangled pieces like a macabre jigsaw to try and find out what went wrong and where.

This is very very sad.

[Thunda]

Yep- think Stratodog nailed it, but heres a weird thing- if you look at the photos- the terrifying freeze frame with the aircraft nose down about to plow into the ground- the tail wheel is extended. Surely, that retracts with the main wheels (which arent down) and would cause considerable drag and effect the trim. Im not saying its the cause of the accident, but its definitley unusual.......

Its my guess the pilot was either unconcious or dead at this point- definitely just a passenger either way.

And, wow, that 'wilson' footage of the crash- (shudder) thank god the fuel didnt go up

Edit: just watched the 'final pass' footage and A) the tail wheel is not extended at this point and B) there is definitley a 'dip' or 'shudder' from the rear of the plane mid way through the turn as the aircraft is facing the camera (13 sec)- it may have hit the slipstream of the a/c in front, but knowing what happens less than a minute later, could it be relevant?

[Stratodog]

Wow, why did I not notice that big fat tail wheel hangin' there?  There's something going on back there and it's not good.  Obviously there is some sort of major malfunction in the tail section.

[razor1uk]

  I think in the P-51, the tail wheel up lock, is likely to operated by a cable running from or activated by the main gear up locks - damage to the cable likely would release the tail wheel up locking as a matter of combat safety.

[chivasregal]

so so sad.we'r all making brain storm.everything is possible; heart attack,mechanical issues,engine problem but there is a fact(forgive me for wrting this)if you r a resposible pilot you dont make dangerous maneuvers above crowd.